Systemic Volatility Shock Early Warning System

KRUPP CAPITAL

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NORMAL ELEVATED CRITICAL
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SPX—|NDX—|SPY—|QQQ—|IWM—|DIA—|VIX—|VIX1D—|VVIX—|TLT—|HYG—|DXY—|EURUSD—|BTCUSDT—|ETHUSDT—|SOLUSDT—|USO—|GLD—|XLK—|XLF—|XLE—|XLY—|XLP—|XLV—|XLI—|XLB—|XLRE—|XLU—|XLC—|XBI—|KRE—|SOXX—|AAPL—|MSFT—|NVDA—|AMZN—|GOOGL—|META—|TSLA—|MSTR—|SPX—|NDX—|SPY—|QQQ—|IWM—|DIA—|VIX—|VIX1D—|VVIX—|TLT—|HYG—|DXY—|EURUSD—|BTCUSDT—|ETHUSDT—|SOLUSDT—|USO—|GLD—|XLK—|XLF—|XLE—|XLY—|XLP—|XLV—|XLI—|XLB—|XLRE—|XLU—|XLC—|XBI—|KRE—|SOXX—|AAPL—|MSFT—|NVDA—|AMZN—|GOOGL—|META—|TSLA—|MSTR—|SPX—|NDX—|SPY—|QQQ—|IWM—|DIA—|VIX—|VIX1D—|VVIX—|TLT—|HYG—|DXY—|EURUSD—|BTCUSDT—|ETHUSDT—|SOLUSDT—|USO—|GLD—|XLK—|XLF—|XLE—|XLY—|XLP—|XLV—|XLI—|XLB—|XLRE—|XLU—|XLC—|XBI—|KRE—|SOXX—|AAPL—|MSFT—|NVDA—|AMZN—|GOOGL—|META—|TSLA—|MSTR—|
Sessions:
Data:
KC Data Warehouse
Data Quality: 0% (NO DATA)| 0/28 assets| Price freshness: ∞

Asset Overview

12 assets · tab 1 / 3
Anchors · Indices · Rates · Credit · Crypto ETFs
SPX
S&P 500 IndexData unavailable
NDX
Nasdaq 100 IndexData unavailable
SPY
SPDR S&P 500 ETFData unavailable
QQQ
Invesco QQQ TrustData unavailable
VIX
CBOE Volatility IndexData unavailable
VVIX
CBOE VIX-of-VIX IndexData unavailable
VIX1D
CBOE 1-Day VIXData unavailable
IWM
iShares Russell 2000Data unavailable
DIA
SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETFData unavailable
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFData unavailable
HYG
iShares High Yield CorpData unavailable
IBIT
iShares Bitcoin Trust ETFData unavailable

Regime Probability Distribution

— No distribution yet — the regime probabilities are derived from the composite score, and no signal has been measured so far. They appear with the first GEX feed.

Volatility & Sentiment (Intermarket Regime)

data pending · warehouse observations incomplete
Regime Diagnosis
DATA PENDING · INSUFFICIENT LIVE OBSERVATIONS
Trigger-Status: Awaiting complete live volatility and cross-asset observations.
SMART VS. DUMB MONEY SPREAD
• PCCE (Retail Single-Stocks)—– [Retail Call-Heavy < 0.50]

Not measured — the warehouse carries no reading for this metric yet, so the threshold is neither met nor breached.

• PCCI (Institutional Indexes)—– [Institutional Put-Heavy > 1.40]

Not measured — the warehouse carries no reading for this metric yet, so the threshold is neither met nor breached.

• VIXEQ-to-VIX Ratio—– [High Dispersion > 2.50]

Not measured — the warehouse carries no reading for this metric yet, so the threshold is neither met nor breached.

BLACK SWAN & TAIL RISK WATCH
• SKEW-to-VIX Ratio (SKEW null / VIX null)—– [Tail-Risk Range 7-12]

Not measured — the warehouse carries no reading for this metric yet, so the threshold is neither met nor breached.

• VVIX-to-VIX Ratio (VVIX null / VIX null)—– [VVIX Compression < 7]

Not measured — the warehouse carries no reading for this metric yet, so the threshold is neither met nor breached.

VOLATILITY TERM STRUCTURE
• VIX1D / VIX Ratio (VIX1D null / VIX null)—– [Intraday vs. 30d Vola]

Not measured — the warehouse carries no reading for this metric yet, so the threshold is neither met nor breached.

• VIX / VXV Ratio (VIX null / VXV null)—– [Standard Term Structure ~0.9]

Not measured — the warehouse carries no reading for this metric yet, so the threshold is neither met nor breached.

VOLATILITY INDEXES
• VIX (30d S&P 500 Vola)[N/A]
↳ Neutral 15-18 | Panik >25
• VIX1D (1-Day / 0DTE Vola)[N/A]
↳ Misst Intraday-Gammaschocks
• VIXEQ (S&P Individual Vol)[N/A]
↳ Misst implizite Einzelaktienvola
• VXV / FIX3M (3-Month Vola)[N/A]
↳ Gradmesser für die Vola-Kurve
• VVIX (Volatility of VIX)[N/A]
↳ Angstbarometer der Profis
• MOVE (Bond Market Vola)[N/A]
↳ Liquiditätsstress im Rentenmarkt
• VXN (Nasdaq 100 Volatility)[N/A]
↳ Tech-Sektor-Angstindikator
• SKEW (Out-of-the-Money Puts)[N/A]
↳ Black-Swan-Index (100-150)
PUT-CALL RATIOS
• PCSPX (S&P 500 Index PCR)[N/A]
↳ Neutral 0.90 | Bearish >1.20
• PCCE (Cboe Equity PCR)[N/A]
↳ Neutral 0.60 | Call-Heavy <0.50
• PCCI (Cboe Index PCR)[N/A]
↳ Neutral 1.10 | Put-Heavy >1.40
• PCC (Cboe Total PCR)[N/A]
↳ Gesamtmarkt-Sentiment-Mittelwert
• CPCS (Equity Open Interest)[N/A]
↳ Langfristiges Kapital-Commitment
• CPCE (Equity Vol. 5d-MA)[N/A]
↳ Geglätteter Retail-Indikator
• PCR-NDX (Nasdaq 100 PCR)[N/A]
↳ Tech-Sentiment (institutionell)
• ISEE (Index Select PCR)[N/A]
↳ Nur Eröffnungs-Longs (High = Bullish)

Keine vollständige Live-Diagnose: erforderliche Volatilitäts- und Cross-Asset-Beobachtungen fehlen im Warehouse.

Institutional Macro Regime & Transition Matrix

Master Regime Diagnosis
QUAD 1: RISK-ON REGIME
Current Regime Leader: 🟢 RISK-ON LAYER
Regime Transition Velocity
🟡 MEDIUM · WEIGHTING SHIFT
Verteilung verlagert sich zwischen Quadranten — Regime-Shift wahrscheinlich innerhalb 24-72h.
Probability Vector
Risk-On
81.5%
Transition
17.6%
Risk-Off
0.9%
Crisis
0.0%
⚡ Core Market Condition

The mathematical vector indicates systemic capital de-risking. High-beta growth assets are facing institutional distribution, while liquidity is rotating into defensive havens.

⚡ Volatility Regime Shift

With Crisis probability at 0.0% and a medium · weighting shift velocity, the market is on the verge of a Volatility Expansion. The probability of an abrupt Gamma Squeeze is elevated.

⚡ Tactical Trading Implication (Options & Delta)
  • 👉 Delta Exposure: Aggressively reduce Long Delta. Hedging required.
  • 👉 Volatility Strategy: Implement Long Vega structures (Long Put Spreads) or high-strike Tail-Hedges.

Die regime transitions Probability basiert auf gewichteter Kombination aus Composite-Score, Intermarket-Divergenzen, VIX-Term-Structure und Smart/Dumb-Money-Spread. Vier-Quadranten-Modell mit Markov-Übergängen.

Signal Dependency Graph

GEX Flow Macro Structural
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1. Net GEX Regime

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Anchors · Indices · Rates · Credit · Crypto ETFs
AssetNet GEXTotal GEXNeg SkewStatus
No GEX-eligible underlyings in this tab yet.
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2. Put/Call GEX Ratio Escalation

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Anchors · Indices · Rates · Credit · Crypto ETFs
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3. Gamma Grid · GEX Heatmap

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Anchors · Indices · Rates · Credit · Crypto ETFs
GammaGrid · GEX Heatmap
Loading the option chain for SPX…
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4. Expiry Clustering / Gamma-Cliff Calendar

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Anchors · Indices · Rates · Credit · Crypto ETFs

No expiry data loaded

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5. IV vs HV Spread

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Anchors · Indices · Rates · Credit · Crypto ETFs
AssetIVHVSpread (bp)IV-RankFlag
SPXNo data
NDXNo data
SPYNo data
QQQNo data
VIXNo data
IWMNo data
DIANo data
TLTNo data
HYGNo data
IBITNo data
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6. Correlation Snap Detector

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Anchors · Indices · Rates · Credit · Crypto ETFs
No correlation data loaded for this group yet (needs ≥5 series points per asset — one is recorded every 5 min, so this fills as the dashboard keeps polling).

Rolling pairwise correlation vs group anchor over the last 60 five-minute warehouse slots (up to ~5 h of history). n/a = series without variation.

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7. GEX Acceleration

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8. Net DEX Monitor

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Anchors · Indices · Rates · Credit · Crypto ETFs
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9. OTM Put Volume Explosion

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Anchors · Indices · Rates · Credit · Crypto ETFs
1.2x Yellow1.5x Red / TOXIC
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10. Composite Shock Score

GREEN●
Overall Recommendation:No recommendation — nothing has been measured yet.
Risk Regime:— — no signal measured yet
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11. VIX Term Structure

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Curve · Front → Long EndData Pending
Slope (VIX→3M)
N/A
Curve Shape
N/A

Insufficient live VIX term-structure observations

Insufficient live observations for a trustworthy term-structure calculation.

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12. Inter-Asset Correlation Matrix

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Anchors · Indices · Rates · Credit · Crypto ETFs
Color scale:-10+1

Returns-based Pearson correlation over the last 60 five-minute warehouse slots for the active tab group (9 assets). Diagonal = 1.0 (self). VIX/VVIX/VIX1D are excluded (no optionable GEX series). “—” = not measurable (a series without variation, e.g. a market that never ticked, so ρ is undefined rather than zero). High positive correlations signal systemic deleveraging risk.

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13. Dealer Aggregate Positioning

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— No dealer book measured — none of the 28 assets returned GEX positions, so there is no aggregate to sum. A sum over nothing is not 0, and a flat book is not the same as an unmeasured one.

Aggregated dealer gamma/delta exposure across all warehouse-backed assets. Bar scale = largest per-asset |net GEX| so the aggregate position stays legible. Negative skew >25% indicates broad dealer short-gamma regime — amplifies realized volatility on any downside move.

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14. GEX Distribution by Strike

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Anchors · Indices · Rates · Credit · Crypto ETFs
Asset:

GEX distribution by strike for SPX. Spot price marked with cyan dashed line. Gamma wall (red) = price magnet on downside. Gamma ceiling (cyan) = resistance on upside.

Strike profile is derived deterministically from net GEX, put/call ratio, and spot using the same warehouse GEX snapshot the Gamma Grid (module 3) renders.

15. Multi-Asset Comparison Matrix

All 47 assets · grouped · full-width
No GEX data loaded. Load demo data or a scenario to populate the comparison matrix.

Alarm History

No alarms recorded